PG&E Rate Increase 2026: PG&E Seeks $1.9 Billion for the Kincade and Dixie Fires

A different CPUC case from the capital-structure fight you have been reading about, it puts the 2019 Kincade and 2021 Dixie fire costs on your bill, evidentiary hearings run in August, and a proposed decision is due by mid-November. Here is the per-month math.

The case you have not seen yet

On November 14, 2025, PG&E filed Application A.25-11-001, its first "catastrophic wildfire" cost-recovery filing under the AB 1054 framework. It asks the CPUC for permission to recover roughly $1.59 billion in wildfire claims, litigation, and financing costs (booked to its Wildfire Expense Memorandum Account, or WEMA) plus about $314 million in restoration and emergency-response costs (its Catastrophic Event Memorandum Account, or CEMA) for the 2019 Kincade Fire and 2021 Dixie Fire (PG&E customer notice, CPUC scoping memo). Add them and PG&E is asking ratepayers for about $1.9 billion.

This is not the 2024 WMCE application (A.24-11-009, the $595.5 million wildfire-mitigation spending case whose September 1 start slipped to 2027). And it is not the capital-structure case (A.24-08-004) where PG&E sought to exclude the Dixie and Kincade fire debt from its debt-to-equity ratio. Those are the financing-structure doors. A.25-11-001 is the door that actually moves dollars onto your bill, and it is moving now. PG&E's second-quarter 2026 earnings presentation (released July 23, 2026) lists the schedule: evidentiary hearings in August 2026, opening and reply briefs in September 2026, and a proposed decision by about November 13, 2026, which is the 12-month statutory deadline AB 1054 sets for a wildfire cost-recovery decision.

How AB 1054 cost recovery works

AB 1054 (2019) changed who pays when a utility's equipment starts a fire. Three buckets absorb the cost before any of it reaches you. Insurance pays first. Then the state's $21 billion Wildfire Fund reimburses eligible claims above a utility's $1 billion self-insurance retention. Whatever is left, the utility asks the CPUC to recover in rates, and the CPUC decides whether PG&E's conduct was prudent. Because PG&E held a valid safety certificate when both fires ignited, AB 1054 gives it a legal presumption of prudence, but the CPUC still examines the facts and can disallow costs, or make PG&E repay the Wildfire Fund, if it finds the conduct unreasonable. For this filing PG&E proposes two repayment shapes: the big claims bucket (electric WEMA) gets financed with recovery bonds and spread over 25 years starting 2028, while the smaller restoration bucket (CEMA) is recovered straight through rates over 12 months starting 2027. The CPUC process is the usual one: application, Public Advocates Office review, evidentiary hearings, an administrative law judge's proposed decision, then a Commission vote.

What it costs a low-usage apartment, a median home, and a high-usage home

PG&E's bill insert gives the impact for a typical NON-CARE bundled residential customer at 500 kWh of electricity and 31 therms of gas. Scaling the electric adder by usage, the 2027 figure works out to about 0.584 cents per kWh and the 2028 bond figure to about 0.17 cents per kWh. The arithmetic:

2027, restoration costs recovered over one year:

Low-usage apartment, 250 kWh: about +$1.46/mo on the electric bill (0.584 c/kWh times 250).
Median home, 500 kWh: +$2.92/mo electric, plus +$1.19/mo gas at 31 therms. Combined about +$4.11/mo.
High-usage home, 1,200 kWh: about +$7.01/mo electric (0.584 c/kWh times 1,200), plus +$1.19/mo gas. Combined about +$8.20/mo.

2028 and for the 25 years after, wildfire claims financed by recovery bonds:

Low-usage apartment, 250 kWh: about +$0.43/mo (0.17 c/kWh times 250).
Median home, 500 kWh: +$0.85/mo.
High-usage home, 1,200 kWh: about +$2.04/mo (0.17 c/kWh times 1,200).

The gas charge, about 3.84 cents per therm, also runs for 12 months in 2027, so a typical home pays roughly +$1.19/mo on gas that year. Notice the shape: the much bigger bucket, the $1.59 billion in claims, costs you less per month than the smaller $314 million restoration bucket, because securitization spreads it across 25 years. By law, customers enrolled in CARE and FERA are exempt from the recovery-bond charge, the 2028 piece, though they still pay the 2027 restoration and gas portions. The final bond amount depends on terms not yet priced, so treat the 2028 figures as PG&E's estimate.

The live fight: a drone, and $700 million

The number to watch in the August hearings is roughly $700 million in remaining Dixie Fire claims. PG&E's equipment started the Dixie Fire, but PG&E argues an unidentified drone that hovered over the fire's origin in July 2021 grounded the air crews just as they were starting to contain it, letting a two-acre fire balloon to nearly a million acres and more than 1,000 destroyed structures (NBC Bay Area, July 16, 2026). Under AB 1054, costs worsened by "factors beyond the utility's control" can still be passed to ratepayers, so the drone is PG&E's argument that you, not shareholders, should cover those claims. Insurance already paid $500 million and the Wildfire Fund has covered about $600 million in Dixie claims. The CPUC's evidentiary hearings in August are where the prudence and "factors beyond control" questions get argued on the record, ahead of the proposed decision due by mid-November.

Tracking

Capital structure and short-term borrowing (A.24-08-004 and A.25-10-004): both held again at the CPUC's July 16 meeting and now return at the August 13 voting meeting. The capital-structure proposed decision denies PG&E's request to exclude the Dixie, Kincade, and DWR-loan amounts from its debt-to-equity ratio and finds no rate effect; the short-term borrowing decision grants half the ask, raising the cap by $1 billion to $9.5 billion (Stoel Rives regulatory update, July 22, 2026, July 16 agenda).
2024 WMCE (A.24-11-009): unchanged. The September 1, 2026 start has slipped, the statutory deadline is now February 19, 2027, and PG&E did not request interim collection, so $0 of it is in rates until a final decision.
2027 General Rate Case (A.25-05-009): PG&E's proposed schedule submits the proceeding for a decision on August 3, 2026, with a proposed decision expected in March 2027 and a final decision in May 2027. The Public Advocates $840-a-year-by-2030 forecast and PG&E's $128 estimate remain unresolved.
Base Services Charge: about five months in effect, no CPUC-ordered adjustments to the tiers or discount levels this week.
Heat-shutoff rules: utilities have six months from the July 16 vote to adopt a region-specific heat standard, so watch for PG&E's compliance filing toward January 2027.